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The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.
“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”
Some exchange operators already filed plans to introduce KPI-linked event contracts. Those derivatives would be tied to metrics such as corporate earnings or, in more nuanced cases, Apple iPhone shipments or Tesla deliveries — just two examples — in a given quarter.
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Lottomatica chairman and CEO Guglielmo Angelozzi noted the combination would create a more diversified business with significant opportunities for growth.
“With the combination of Lottomatica and Cirsa, two extremely successful companies, we create the undisputed leader in Italy and Spain, among the best gaming markets globally, complemented by leadership positions in other very high growth geographies,” he said.
Cirsa CEO Antonio Hostench added: “I am delighted to embark on this exciting journey together. The combination of Cirsa and Lottomatica creates a world-class diversified gaming leader with leading positions across its core markets and significant opportunities to accelerate profitable growth.”
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For the right audience, likely professional traders and sophisticated retail investors, the CME futures on FutureSports indexes could amount to “Goldilocks” offerings because the derivatives aren’t standard sports bets nor are they carbon copies of the event contracts traded on prediction markets.
The MLB and NHL futures contracts could be deployed by big-money bettors as hedges on various team exposures over the course of those leagues’ seasons.
As for the regulatory outlooks for the ETFs, the SEC hasn’t publicly commented on the NHL funds’ fates and it’s too early to tell what will come of the MLB filings, but there are hundreds of futures-based ETFs on the market today.