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With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Macquarie expects sports event contracts will drive approximately 80% of taker volume this year, but Beynon sees other categories growing over the long term.

“We expect non-sports categories such as economics, politics, crypto, and entertainment to gain share over time,” says the analyst.

Prediction market operators are on legal losing streaks, confirming that Beynon is onto something when he says the regulatory environment is the biggest risk facing the industry.

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Merkur has agreed to pay an effective price of €6.19 per SFC share for the stake, representing a substantial premium over recent market valuations. 

The premium reflects both the control premium paid to the sellers and Merkur’s valuation for majority ownership.

As Merkur’s acquisition of Casigrangi would grant indirect control over SFC, French regulations require Merkur to launch a simplified mandatory tender offer for the remaining SFC shares it does not already hold. 

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More recently, Polymarket has paid top dollar for prominent athletes and celebrities to promote its prediction market. The company’s paid partners include LeBron James, Derek Jeter, Eli Manning, Spike Lee, and Craig Robinson.

The Polymarket water tower can be seen from I-94, but isn’t overly prominent, as the interstate passes beneath three bridges—Concord Avenue, train tracks, and a service road—near the Mount Elliott exit.

But the advertisement is still garnering plenty of attention online and in the news, with the controversy surrounding the Polymarket branding a major topic of discussion in prediction market and gaming circles.