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How to play Johnny Cash
Strip away the language of contracts, order books and event trading and Bernard Marantelli has a blunt description of what is happening inside US sports prediction markets. “Kalshi is a sportsbook that’s just not allowed to have an in-house risk team,” says the founder of White Swan Data, one of the specialist firms now making markets on prediction exchanges.
The difference is all about the risk function. A sportsbook employs traders to price bets and manage its exposure. An exchange provides an API through which firms compete to quote prices and supply liquidity.
“Here’s an API. Bernard and 88 other people can market-make all these request-for-quotes (RFQs),” Marantelli says. “Some people might come in and just do esports because they’re esports experts. Others do everything. Some focus on same-game parlays. But it’s a sportsbook.”
How to play Johnny Cash
The offences relate to special betting markets that let customers wager on the exact date of the general election.
The then-prime minister, Rishi Sunak, announced 4 July 2024 as the election date on 22 May 2024. However, internal planning for that date had already begun at 10 Downing Street and Conservative Campaign Headquarters before the announcement.
Anthony Lee’s senior campaigning role gave him access to confidential discussions about the election timing. Rather than keeping that information confidential, he placed bets and passed it to his wife. She then used the information to place her own bets.
How to play Johnny Cash
Aldrin monitors product changes, advertising, social media activity, app-store rankings and trading volume across prediction market operators. Patel said the objective is to connect those indicators and show how a product launch supported by advertising affects volume and market share.
Below the largest exchanges, he sees numerous operators competing for relatively small shares of a fast-growing category. “If you get 1% of this market, I think it’s a huge opportunity,” Patel said. “There are a lot of people fighting to get 1%.”
Jefferies estimates exchanges can retain approximately 65% of explicit transaction fees, with the balance distributed across clearinghouses, brokers and liquidity providers. It therefore expects more operators to bring parts of the infrastructure in-house.
