Mummy Multiplier

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As with PASPA, this matter revolves heavily around federalism versus states’ rights. Traditional sports betting is governed by individual state regulators with varying laws and regulations. Federal derivatives are regulated by the CFTC, which has fully embraced prediction markets under US President Donald Trump after rejecting them in previous administrations.

The web of lawsuits and court rulings involving prediction markets has greatly complicated the issue of jurisdiction. Kalshi has been forced to limit trading in multiple states, most notably Nevada, and the CFTC has gone to unprecedented lengths to protect its licencees. This includes suing nine states directly and issuing emergency orders to reject state mandates.

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig is currently the lone sitting commissioner for an agency that traditionally features a bipartisan group of five. Selig has repeatedly defended both the legitimacy of prediction markets as financial assets and the role of the CFTC in overseeing them. The CFTC under his direction has embarked on a series of rule proposals regarding prediction markets, although detractors argue that the proposed changes still allow for sports contracts and in some ways could be seen as a tightening of the belt to make a Supreme Court review look more favourable.

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As had been expected, the conclusion of the NFL season, which found the Tampa Bay Buccaneers handing the Kansas City Chiefs an embarrassing defeat, opened the doors for an increase in wagers in other sports. Football had dominated the charts since last September, but it’s now time for basketball to take the lead. On Bodog, NBA and NCAA Men’s Basketball are now the overwhelming go-to options for sports gamblers. 

This past weekend, college hoops wagers topped the charts on Bodog, garnering 36.88% of the action. That was about 2.5% better than what the NCAA received, and substantially more than that of the third-place NHL, which only picked up 10.17%. After that, the UFC/MMA made an appearance with 4.15% before different soccer leagues captured four of the remaining top-ten spots. The Premier League was the best, with 3.34%, but tennis and golf snuck in next. The Australian Open Men’s Singles picked up 3.21% and the Genesis Invitational grabbed 2.47%. Germany’s Bundesliga, Spain’s La Liga and Italy’s Serie A rounded out the top-ten list, with Germany and Spain sharing 2.02% each and Italy getting 1.44% of the wagers.

Despite taking the top spot on the charts on Bodog this past weekend, NCAA games didn’t prove overly enticing to gamblers. The NBA captured almost all of the top-ten most-wagered events, with only one NCAA game making it to the list. Sports gamblers liked betting on the LA Clippers a lot, as the team’s games against the Utah Jazz and the Brooklyn Nets picked up 13.85% and 11.51%, respectively. In a surprise victory, the Clippers beat the Jazz on Friday, but couldn’t keep the run going and lost to the Nets on Sunday.

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Frank Fantini, founder and publisher emeritus of Eilers-Fantini, thinks the change began before Covid. “There is a tendency to look at the world as pre-Covid and post-Covid,” he says. “But the decline in gaming began earlier than that with the slowdown in new jurisdictions and new projects.”

The US land-based casino market had begun to mature and the number of obvious new markets and projects was shrinking. Online gambling offered a new source of growth, particularly through the expansion of legal sports betting. That opportunity was quickly reflected in share prices.

The problem is that legalisation has not happened as quickly as expected, while taxes and competition have increased. “Online gaming has been affected by the broader re-rating of growth-oriented internet and software stocks,” says Chad Beynon, managing director and head of US research at Macquarie Capital. “But there has also been a genuine deterioration in expectations for parts of the sector.”